What Are the Odds You’ll Survive This?

Your life is worth $10 million.

Reading that statement, you may have one of the following reactions:

Wow, I am seriously undervalued.

Does that include the black-market price of both kidneys?

Is that how much the hitman wants?

Just give me five minutes to develop a scam involving life insurance.

What the hell are you talking about?

I will now address the last of those statements.

What I am talking about is the fact that “when evaluating the impact of government policies that affect public health, analysts place a statistical value of about $10 million on each human life as a way of measuring the appropriate amount of risk a policy may cause or mitigate.”

That’s right — when it comes to implementing new policies or jettisoning old procedures, we crunch the numbers and assign a cash value to each life.

Makes you feel valuable, doesn’t it? 

Keep in mind, however, that our old assumptions about the value of human life are changing in this hellish new era. Local governments are fretting about economic damage and the possibility of armed lunatics storming their capitals, and they are responding by ending lockdowns even though “in every instance, looser restrictions improve the performance of the economy but also lead to more deaths.”

This means that the value of a life varies from state to state. For example, one analysis found that “relaxing business closures and stay-at-home rules could cost 13,000 lives in Texas and 12,000 lives in Georgia by September 1, [but] it will also preserve $3.4 billion in statewide income in Texas, and $1.7 billion in Georgia.”

Extrapolating those numbers to “determine the income gained per death when comparing moderate and strict measures” means that your life in Texas is worth $254,000. But your life in Georgia is worth just $247,000.

Talk about a loss in value.

The study estimates 116,000 American deaths by the end of June “if tough restrictions remain in place —but 353,000 deaths if those restrictions are partially lifted.” The researchers add that “if fully lifted, with no further restrictions, deaths would spike to 895,000,” before helpfully adding that “that would save jobs, though.”

Now, when we refer to hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, we most certainly are not talking about you. We are talking about someone else — anyone else — and never you or someone you know. It’s always someone else, probably someone poor with darker skin.

Indeed, most of the people who advocate for reopening the economy don’t seriously believe that they or their loved ones will be infected. Oh, they might say they’re willing to die for the economy, but come on. Who would want their epitaph to be, “He heroically died for a microscopic uptick in GDP”?

On some level, perhaps even subconsciously, most of these people believe that they are magically immune to the virus, or that it won’t kill them because they pray to the correct god, or because they are tough Americans, or because they can buy their way to safety (ok, that last one might be true).

In any case, it’s always a numbers game. For example, consider this hypothetical scenario:

“There is contagious disease that will kill 99 Americans if we do not shut down the country.”

It is doubtful, of course, that we would go into full lockdown if fewer than a hundred people were at risk of dying.

But let’s change a key detail:

“There is contagious disease that will kill 99 million Americans if we do not shut down the country.”

I’m pretty sure most of us would say, “Bolt the doors now,” if one-third of Americans could potentially be killed. Hey, even most of the gun-toting, freedom-lovin’ protesters would suddenly abandon their “principled” arguments if they and their families were in an epicenter.

So that’s the problem. Somewhere between 99 and 99 million is our problem.

There are those who argue, of course, that we should never take economic concerns into consideration when we talk about human life.

But we do this all the time, usually in a subtle, easily acceptable manner. We give cash awards in civil trials for wrongful deaths. We value interstate commerce so much that we built a freeway system that kills thousands of Americans each year. And then there is that aforementioned $10 million number (or $247,000 in Georgia).

Yes, we routinely roll the dice with death.

Of course, it’s a lot more fun to gauge the odds of non-lethal matters. For example, the odds of Joe Biden being elected president are pretty good, as of this writing. But they should be even better, considering that he is running against the only president in history to be both impeached and run the country into an economic meltdown. Plus, this president thinks swallowing bleach is a good idea.

Seriously, how is this even close?

But ultimately, we return to the question of our very existence. What are our odds of making it out of this Covid-19 mess alive?

Well, perhaps we can listen to our old friend Chris Hedges, widely regarded as a brilliant writer, insightful thinker, and possibly the most pessimistic man alive.

Hedges recently discussed our terrifying new era, and he encapsulated his thoughts with the following sentence:

“These days are the good times, as compared to what is coming next.”

Well, I feel better now. Don’t you?

Never Argue With Lunatics

If there is one thing that a corrupt president, a neo-fascist political party, and several thousand gun-toting protesters know, it’s that the simple act of saying you can now get a haircut will cause our economy to rebound so quickly that every citizen will get prosperity whiplash. Just like that — no more Great Depression 2!

Oh, and also, the virus has been defeated, and only a few disposable people will die from this point on, so don’t concern yourself with them.

Yes, the same individuals who told you that we would be welcome as liberators, that the glaciers aren’t melting, and that job creators will trickle down their cash are now insisting that opening up restaurants will cure our financial ills — even though a lot of economists agree that many Americans remain too terrified to mingle in crowds, which would thwart any economic improvement, and every serious epidemiologist has said that opening up now only ensures more death and misery from Covid-19.

But who are you going to believe? Esteemed scientists from top institutions with access to the latest data and sophisticated predictive models? Or a guy who says gurgling bleach is good for you? 

I think the answer is obvious.

Now, to be fair, there are coherent arguments for considering a slow, phased-in reopening for some parts of the country. And one can even disagree -- to a point -- about the lethality of Covid-19, the effectiveness of face masks, and the constitutionality of lockdown orders.

But we’re not hearing the reasonable arguments that conservatives could have made. Instead we are hearing from ferocious right-wingers who insist that 70,000 deaths is no big deal, that social distancing is a myth, and that patriotic behavior consists of screaming obscenities into a cop’s face from one inch away (guess that whole Blue Lives Matter movement is done).

Soon, we will hear Fox News shriek that washing your hands is un-American. After that, it’s just a matter of time before a gang of bellicose conservatives burst into a New York City ICU ward and lick all the ventilators (just to own the libs).

In essence, we can’t have a rational discussion of how to reopen the nation if one side says, “Let’s look at the science,” and the other side says, “It’s all lies! Sacrifice the weak!”

Furthermore, there will be no limit to the madness, no turning point where hardcore Trump supporters will abruptly say, “Enough.”

Yes, imagine the following worst-case scenario: 

Over 2 million Americans die. Unemployment hits record levels. Chaos engulfs the nation. 

Even with all that, 40% of Americans would still vote for Trump and insist that liberals are out to destroy America.

To understand this, keep in mind that just as the virus took years to evolve and mutate in order to spark a pandemic, the GOP took decades to arrive at this moment, when Republicans openly dismiss “scientific merit and expert recommendations and instead award lucrative contracts based on political connections and cronyism."

You see, the Republican Party has, “dating back to Ronald Reagan, attacked the very ideas of the common good and mutual obligation, equating the idea of success with violent, personal sacrifice.”

For the modern GOP, the noblest thing you can do is die for a corporation, and the most evil concept in the world is the idea of societal benefit.

As a result, there is no conspiracy too insane, no rationalization too idiotic, no pivot too jarring, and no excuse too pathetic that will prevent hardcore conservatives from shouting that progressives are scheming to steal our freedom.

So where does that leave us?

Exactly here, in this nation where millions of citizens honestly believe that doctors and nurses who risk their lives working to save Americans are, in actuality, opportunistic villains or brainwashed stooges.

Personally, I look forward to watching Fox News in October, when their commentators will insist that the reports of our societal collapse are exaggerated. They will tell us to pay no attention to the rampaging hordes outside our bedroom windows, and they will opine that liberals won’t tell you that Lord Humungus is actually a really great guy.

And much of America will believe them.

Our Life with the Thrill Kill Cult

“We do in all honesty hate this world.” 

—Heaven’s Gate cult leader Marshall Applewhite

Many conservatives long ago declared their willingness to let others suffer in order to advance a political agenda (e.g., if a 100,000 Iraqis had to die so Americans could buy SUVs, too bad).

Then they increased their zealotry by making suffering an integral part of their appeal (e.g., let’s stuff migrant kids into cages for the sole reason of inflicting pain on them and their families). 

And now they have topped out their fanaticism by embracing homicidal — and even suicidal — behavior (e.g., dying of coronavirus is worth it, just to own the libs).

No, the GOP isn’t merely a fractured political party.

It is now a death cult.

Of course, the phrase “death cult” has been employed “to describe the Republican Party enough lately that it's probably lost any real meaning, but it's not far off as a descriptor.”

After all, this is the party that has advocated — strenuously and vigorously — for Americans “to go back to work and make their employers richer even if it kills tens of thousands or more, because they would rather have that happen than adopt the social welfare policies of a civilized nation.”

This is the party that believed voters in Wisconsin should court death to cast their ballots.

This is the party that believes letting Americans die of coronavirus is the "lesser of two evils" compared to harming the economy.

This is the party that dismisses those who have died because they “were on their last legs anyway.”

This is the party that sincerely believes that there are “more important things than living.”

So yeah, the term “death cult” is not an exaggeration.

Still, we have to wonder where this embrace of nihilism and destruction came from. In less than a decade, we have gone from conservatives screaming that fictitious “death panels” were a liberal plot to conservatives screaming that actual death is your patriotic duty.

Well, studies have shown that many of Trump’s supporters have a pathological “need for chaos” that manifests itself in a strong desire “to tear down the system.”

By their nature, these conservatives “think society should be burned to the ground.”

Much of the white working class (i.e., Trump’s base) are depressed about how their lives turned out. Furthermore, they despise both the force of unstoppable demographic change and their loss of unquestioned power and status. They fear the new face of America, which is young, urban, and not white.

Now combine that hatred and anger with a belief that is rooted in hardcore religiosity and/or unyielding political philosophy. And this belief states that “mass death is either necessary or actively good, the product of a higher power — God, the planet, the economy — working its will.”

For good measure, throw in a refusal to admit that they were even a tiny bit wrong to support a corrupt psychopath incapable of empathy or sacrifice (or sarcasm).

You see, “continuing to proselytize on behalf of a doomsday cult whose prophecies have been disconfirmed, although it makes little logical sense, makes plenty of psychological sense if people have already spent [time] proselytizing on the cult's behalf.” This is because “persevering allows them to avoid the embarrassment of how wrong they were in the first place.”

And wow, were they ever wrong.

Today, “to be a Republican is to believe either that people won't die if social distancing is ended or that if they do it's alright.”

Fortunately, even as Covid-19 ravages the country, and armed zealots shriek about “freedom” in a self-righteous suicidal frenzy, most Americans “are striving for social cohesion and solidarity.” This is true even though “Trump is doing everything in his power to divide us, to keep people on edge, mistrustful and at one another’s throats.”

But coronavirus is only the most visible aspect of the GOP’s fascination with death. We know, for example, about the conservative opinion that guns are more important than the lives of schoolchildren. This fanatical devotion to firearms ignores all statistical proofand anecdotal evidence, causing Republicans to view homicide as a minor inconvenience compared to, say, not having a closet full of AR-15s.

And what of the Republican Party’s insistence that climate change is no big deal? Despite just about every scientist in the world saying, “This is going to kill us all and wipe out civilization,” the American conservative basically says, “Like I care.” In fact, the Trump Administration has reversed or weakened almost 100 environmental rules designed to, among other things, prevent the planet from turning into a molten ball of lava.

No, the concept of death does not frighten Republicans — unless it’s at hands of some swarthy foreigner. Then they’re petrified. 

Otherwise, many of them appear to relish to idea of more devastation and violence. They are willing members of a death cult.

In Trump’s inaugural address, he evoked the phrase “American carnage,” which remains a great name for a punk band. Our deranged chief executive — who cannot even be bothered to acknowledge the 50,000 Americans who have died in the last few weeks — promised that he would end this so-called American carnage. Instead, he has brought it to life. Now that “the real carnagehas arrived, he is reveling in it. He is in his element.”

As are his most devoted followers. And they insist that we join them.

Revenge of the Zealots

Look, we all know that the modern conservative movement is so obsessed with money that many of its adherents are willing to kill off huge swaths of Americans just to keep the stock market humming along. They are not shy about these priorities.

Of course, there are other factors motivating the irrational demand to “open America back up,” other than the love of cash. Supporting motivations include the GOP’s desire to hold on to power, the bizarre appeal of American exceptionalism, the prevalence of twisted conspiracy theories, and the quest to avoid further embarrassing the most bumbling, incompetent president in history.

Now, those are all fantastically bad reasons to risk the lives of thousands of Americans.

But at least things can’t get any darker, can they?

Ahem.

Recently, thousands of protesters gathered in cities across the country to demand that their respective governors ignore medical advice, statistical models, scientific evidence, economic fundamentals, common sense, and basic compassion in favor of, I don’t know, the right to get a haircut or something. 

You see, the tree of liberty needed to be watered with the blood of patriots. Or maybe it was the garden of freedom needed the tears of the righteous. Or perhaps it was the creepy-crawly vines of emancipation required the bodily fluids of the overly zealous. Who can remember all those jingoistic slogans, anyway?

The point is that these super-patriots don’t care if they catch Covid-19 (and they really, really don’t care if you catch Covid-19). They don’t care about flattening the curve or keeping old people alive or overwhelming hospitals or that touchy-feely bullshit. 

They are (supposedly) protesting the denial of their civil rights and the crushing of their freedom.

So for this crowd, ethnic minorities being denied the right to vote is no big deal. But keep some suburbanites from hitting the beach or going to their lake cabins, and suddenly it’s all constitutional and shit.

No, I don’t remember any of these people getting upset about black men being arrested just for walking through the park. However, for these protesters, the mere possibility that they might get ticketed for walking in that same park is grounds for a massive demonstration where guys show up with assault rifles.

Of course, if hundreds of black or Latino men showed up at a state capitol brandishing guns, we all know there would be a lot less pontificating through bullhorns and a lot more sprinting through tear gas.

In any case, these highly agitated neo-Tea Partiers aren't protesting the total failure of our government to deal with this pandemic, or screaming for affordable healthcare, or raging against the myriad injustices that actually exist in this world.

Instead, they are furious that rich people are losing money. They are protesting their inability to go golfing. With the exception of those who have lost their jobs — an apparent minority in these demonstrations — the protesters are shrieking about being inconvenienced for a few weeks.

This isn’t exactly MLK on the National Mall.

The truth is that “none of the people so desperate to re-open the country that they're going out to protest — possibly infecting themselves and others with the virus — are asking why the United States of America still can't figure out testing after months.” 

They aren't asking why other nations have had more success in containing the virus, “and whether the president might have some responsibility” for America’s botched response.

And they aren’t asking why their revered leader says he supports them — to the point of casually endorsing armed revolt — but then says, “Hey, don’t look at me, cuz it’s up the governors.”

Such questions might get in the way of all that Confederate flag waving, and swastika displaying, and gun-toting — all of which are irrelevant to the issue at hand, but which help ascertain what we are really talking about here.

Because these protests are just an excuse for right-wingers to wrap themselves in principle while they bemoan their supposed oppression. It is in their nature to shriek, “Freedom” every time anyone suggests doing something for the common good. And their latest temper tantrum is a “symptom of a nation that has decided that what you want to be true might as well be true, and can become true if you just say it loud enough.”

These demonstrations tap into the delusions of many conservatives, who “imagine themselves as heroic figures in a make-believe drama, as if demanding the right to go to a bowling alley or a nail salon during a pandemic makes them modern-day Thomas Paines.”

At worst, the protests are an opportunity for white supremacists with AR-15s to shout, “Boogaloo,” or “Paparazzi,” or “Taco Tuesday” or whatever random rallying cry they’re employing to call for bloodshed.

It’s fair to ask how these “liberators” would behave if they lived in England during the Blitz? 

We would likely hear, “Yeah, we’re supposed to keep our lights dim and curtains drawn after dark. But that infringes on my freedom! So I’m lighting up my whole house, and if the Nazis bomb my neighbors, too bad!”

Looking at the protesters — primarily middle-aged white men — one gets the impression that they are used to getting whatever they want, and now, without ever being told no, or asked to share. And like full-grown Veruca Salts, they are throwing massive hissy fits whenever their selfishness gets called out.

The protesters “are not distinguishing themselves by making finely calibrated points about epidemiology or offering up more refined social-distancing plans.” A bellicose demand to open everything right now, damn the consequences, is simply “lashing out in frustration and in anger, frustration and anger that is being incited by the president.”

Most Americans are trying to work together, and overwhelmingly support continued lockdowns. But while “health-care workers are risking their lives to save others, the president and many of his most devoted supporters are fomenting chaos, division, and antipathy.”

In essence, they want all the rights, but none of the responsibilities.

The Biggest of Big Governments

When I was younger, I heard many times that I would become more conservative as I aged. That hasn’t happened.

But I don’t know if it’s because I have stuck to my progressive principles, or because conservatism has morphed into a toxic sludge of racism, ignorance, fear, hatred, and crippling insecurity that most rational, well-adjusted people recoil from.

It could be either.

In any case, one of the reasons that I would supposedly turn conservative was because liberals would alienate me by overdoing it with Big Government.

You remember Big Government, right?

That was the term conservatives used to demonize socialized medicine, an adequate social safety net, or any governmental program that got in the way of rich gluttons devouring ungodly amounts of money as fast as they could steal it.

In truth, so-called Big Government is the default setting in every other industrialized nation in the world. But they just call it government, without the unnecessary adjective.

Oh, I know. Those countries are not as “free” as we are, here in the land where small, absolutely miniscule, microscopic government is a cherished goal and unquestioned virtue.

What has never been explained, however, is exactly how the French government oppresses its citizens, or why Australians tolerate their supposedly despotic government, or why the Scandinavian countries have the highest standard of living in the world. 

For that matter, it’s never explained why American “freedom” consists of higher rates of illness, homelessness, and people going without health insurance. I guess those are just the side effects of all that liberty.

In any case, the whole debate over Big Government seems laughably quaint today, as the U.S. government has catapulted trillions — literally, trillions — of dollars at American companies in order to keep the economy, in the words of top financial experts, from going all bye bye gone now.

Oddly enough, during times of economic disaster, the answer always seems to be bigger government. Whenever there is a financial crisis, even hardcore conservatives don’t say, “let’s get all laissez-faire.” No, everybody agrees that we need Big Government to step in, and step in now, or we might face a scenario where industries go under, people lose their jobs, and — in a truly nightmarish development — bank executives don’t get their bonuses.

So if limited, tiny government is so amazing, why is it constantly kicked to the curb whenever the financial system gets a bit wobbly? Why can’t our glorious free market take care of itself? And why are conservatives abandoning “GOP orthodoxy to push for even greater intervention in the economy”?

Maybe it’s because Big Government is not a real thing.

It is a right-wing boogieman that the GOP created to scare voters. It is conservatives, of course, who want to regulate what a woman does with her body, and who you can legally marry. Those ideas certainly don’t envision a limited role for our government.

And in the Trump era, Republicans have created “stunning arguments envisioning almost unchallenged presidential power,” which implies that it is not Big Government if the president — or more specifically, Trump — does it.

These are the same people, of course, who champion “Trump's America First ideology — which is every bit as Big Government as socialism, but without any pretense of a higher purpose.”

What conservatives mean when they talk about Big Government is a system where workers should be happy to sacrifice their very lives, but where huge corporations that hit a speed bump can receive mountains of taxpayer cash with no strings attached. Those corporations’ leaders, by the way, often pause in their counting of all those billions just long enough to scream about excessive regulation and burdensome taxes and government oppression.

But those days may be numbered. And it’s not just because Covid-19 has overwhelmed and outmatched our supposedly first-class healthcare system (a for-profit patchwork that no other country in the world wants to adopt, by the way).

No, it’s also because this economic crisis — barely a decade after the last financial meltdown — has convinced many skeptics of Big Government that they must “see public services as investments rather than liabilities,” and realize that “governments will have to accept a more active role in the economy.”

You see, our current mode of capitalism has proven itself unable to improve the quality of life for its adherents (other than the top 1 percent). It also can’t withstand the slightest jolt without collapsing and dragging millions of people down with it. Twice in the last 12 years, our theoretically amazing economic system has had to be bailed out by its mortal enemy, Big Government. So maybe Small Government isn’t all that robust.

In the near future, many experts believe that economic redistribution “will again be on the agenda; the privileges of the wealthy in question.” Furthermore, conservatives will be shocked and appalled to learn that “policies until recently considered eccentric, such as basic income and wealth taxes, will have to be in the mix.”

After all, it was just 24 years ago when President Bill Clinton declared that “The era of Big Government is over.” Republicans cheered the president then, something they rarely did during the Clinton years. 

But clearly, there was nothing worth cheering that day.